Strategy Is a Probability Statement

Strategy Is a Probability Statement

Game theory tells you what position you must hold. Statistics tells you the odds your plan actually gets you there. Almost no company computes either. Ask a Fortune 500 strategy team what their plan is, and you will receive a narrative: a market thesis, a three-year...
The Eight-Helicopter Problem

The Eight-Helicopter Problem

Forty-six years after Desert One, most companies still refuse to run the one calculation that matters. In April 1980, the United States launched eight helicopters into Iran on a mission that required six, believing two spares constituted a margin of safety. The...